The Logic Model - getting a social return on investment?
Dec 22nd, 2008 by Don Ledingham
Diagram - University of Wisconsin
Back in July 2006 I listened to Jim Honan give a fascinating talk on “Change that Leads to Improvement”.
The very title provokes interest as we sometimes assume that any change leads to improvement, whereas even a cursory examination of some of the changes which have been implemented in Scottish education over the last 30 years would suggest otherwise.
Jim introduced us to the concept of a “social return on investment” and used the outcome approach to help us to shape up our Service Improvement Plan for education in East Lothian. We’ve been delighted with the response by schools to this approach as they have reacted in a very positive manner to the flexibility they have been given to achieve the outcomes in a manner which best suits their context, as opposed to a universal solution which they had to implement.
As an authority East Lothian Council have now decided to go one step further by applying the Program Logic Model (see above) to the planning process within all departments - you can access the document here.
In order to clarify my own thinking on this I thought I might have a go at describing the process - as the exam questions used to say - in my own words (albeit that I’ll make good use of the resources provided by the University of Wisconsin and the Kellog Foundation Development Guide).
Social Return on Investment
The best way to capture this concept is to think of yourself as a potential investor in an educational development. I like to use the Dragon’s Den analogy as means of describing this. As in the programme you want to invest in a project which is likely to succeed, however, in contrast to BBC Dragons you want to see a social return on your investment, as opposed to a capital return.
Nevertheless, you want to see some logic applied to the investment proposal which makes a clear connection between the resources to be invested (inputs) , the activities to be undertaken (outputs), the short and long term outcomes (outcomes), and whether or not these outcomes will benefit society (impact) -we’ll call this linear sequence a Logic Model.
The decision about whether you will invest in the project, and maintain that investment in the future will be informed by the degree of confidence you have in the model being described.
What’s interesting about the way in which educational investment and educational activity have evolved over the last fifty years is that there is actually so little connection between inputs and outcomes, i.e. there is little discernible correlation between the level of investment in education and the quality of educational outcomes. The following quote is taken from Economics of Education in Europe:
In the discussion, many researchers repeatedly pointed out that education systems could achieve much better outcomes with the given amount of money if the money was used efficiently. More resources alone would not necessarily solve the problems. In this regard, insights from the economics of education may help politicians to make the right decisions on how to spend scarce resources. As a starting point, it is vital to move from an inputs-based perspective of investments in education to an outcome-based perspective.
The low correlation between investment and outcomes was most recently identified within the the OECD Trends Shaping Education Report:
High expenditure on schooling does not translate into better results: Finland has around average expenditure but very high achievements. What can be done to spend money more effectively?
Despite such research there is an overwhelming intuitive assumption that more investment will lead to better outcomes. Try telling any parent or teacher that you are going to improve the quality of their child’s education by investing less money in the system and you will be put rudely in your place.
So it’s important here to focus on the purpose of this exercise - which is not about saving money - but about exploring how we can get the best social return from the money we currently invest. I’ve explored before how some parents understandably tend to focus upon “inputs” - in the belief that they will lead to better outcomes for the children - whereas in actual fact they would be better focusing their attention upon the entire system, e.g. inputs, outputs, outcomes and impact.
Over a series of posts I will explore the components of the Logic Model and use the Implementation of A Curriculum for Excellence as an example (as noted earlier this will be a personal interpretation of the Logic Model) .
The posts will cover:
Is it appropriate to expect a social return on investment when considering education?
Nova Scotia’s Genuine Progress Index (GPI) provides an interesting take on measuring the social return on investment. The Index is a vast piece of work, indeed the main report runs to 713 pages!
The GPI attempts to assess economic, social and environmental costs and benefits in regard to the cost-effectiveness of alternative policy options.
The section that is specific to education (at a mere 115 pages!) can be found here: http://gpiatlantic.org/pdf/education/nseducation.pdf
Alternatively, the Index and it’s constituent reports can be navigated from here: http://www.gpiatlantic.org/
Finally, anybody wishing to find out more, or that remains to be convinced (and I think that I fall into that category), may be interested in this event: http://www.communitydevelopmentalliancescotland.org/documents/seminars/Measuring_What_MattersAdvanceNotice.pdf